The Iraqi people never believed

The war in Iraq has finally come to an end for the US, after nine years of bloodshed and destruction. It started with lies and the undeclared motive of removing a defiant tyrant in control of a substantial portion of the world’s oil and gas reserves. The lie was chocolate-coated with the claim of “liberating Iraq.”

The successful military operation that involved 170,000 troops at the height of the “surge” was not supported by a neat post-war restoration. Restoration evolved by trial and error. But the biggest error was thinking that with the removal of Saddam Hussein, Iraq would turn into a pro-Western Arab democracy, and Iran would be contained by a reformed Iraq. This never happened. American intervention further increased the Iranian influence in Iraq because of its two-thirds Shiite population.

This week the remaining American forces left their bases to Iraqi forces. Few loved Saddam Hussein. No one really knows how many people are saddened by the departure of the Americans, although Iraqis owe the present-day situation to the American invasion. This is the irony of history. The Iraqi people never believed that the Americans came to their country for their well-being. They know that Saddam Hussein was toppled not because he was an evil man but because he defied Western interests, American leadership and Israeli security in the Middle East.

Furthermore, although the returning Americans feel jubilant and victorious, the country they are leaving behind is neither more secure nor more cohesive than when they arrived. Iran’s influence has grown much more, and the likelihood of sectarian and ethnic conflict is very much a possibility. Despite this reality, American officials (i.e., US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta) paint a glamorous picture in depicting the end of the Iraq invasion: “After a lot of blood spilled by Iraqis and Americans, the mission of an Iraq that could govern and secure itself has become real.” President Barack Obama went a step further and said that Americans “helped to build a sovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government…”

Yet everyone in Iraq and the American administration knows that all agreements, including the constitution, are worth as much as the paper they are written on. Traditional fault lines among Arabs and Kurds and among Sunnis and Shiites over power- and resource-sharing still remain active. Territorial disputes and matters of sovereignty have yet to be solved. The American presence and leverage has only kept the conflicts at a manageable level. If not for the arm-twisting of “big brother,” these issues could not be prevented from catching fire.

It is unthinkable that outside interference from neighbors will soon be seen in Iraq’s internal politics. They will try to interfere to benefit from the country’s rich natural resources as well as carve out zones of influence by allying themselves with friendly populations. Some may even look at Iraq as a hunting ground to expand their regional hegemony.

If the Arab awakening changes the regime in Syria, the Baathist influence among Iraq’s Sunni Arabs may subside, and the Iranian influence that affects Syria via the Iraqi Shiites may be reduced to a great extent. All of these possibilities and connections render Iraq’s future more uncertain.

Another source of uncertainty is opposing tendencies regarding the administrative system of the new Iraq. Although Kurds managed to wrench a de-facto independent government from Baghdad due to their invaluable help to American military activities, their strength was not sufficient to achieve the implementation of Article 140 regarding territorial issues (Kirkuk and environs) and the hydrocarbon law that would allow them to manage the natural resources in their territory. Baghdad and Arbil are still at odds over these matters. Neither Kurds nor Arabs are too happy concerning these disputed issues.

Another important matter is how Iraq should be governed. There is no consensus over federalism, the system of independent (confederal) governorates or a strong centralized system that Arab nationalists insist on. No one knows how things will play out. In any case, both Iraqis and neighbors like Turkey wish that there will not be protracted conflicts and bloodshed once again in this rich country that deserves peace and stability.